SECURITY

Global Trends & Alternative Future Scenarios

Strategic Planning

Threats

Technology

General Resources

Global Trends & Alternative Future Scenarios

Central Intelligence Agency Global Trends 2015

This is the Global Trends 2015 report by the National Intelligence Council. The effort was based on scenario workshops that engaged outside experts to consider global and regional trends and issues of possible national security interest over the next 15 years.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html

Intelligence Challenges for the Next Generation

Remarks by John C. Gannon Chairman, National Intelligence Council to the World Affairs Council Washington, D.C., in June 1998.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/archives/1998/nic_speech_060598.html

Alternative World Scenarios for a New Order of Nations

This set of scenarios represents an update of an earlier report A World 2010: A New Order of Nations.

Source: Department of Defense

http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/ssipubs/pubs93e/altworld/altworld.htm

Which Army After Next? The Strategic Implications of Alternative Futures

This article presents four scenarios for the future global security system: A Trisected Security System, The Renaissance of Ideology, Internal Collapse, and The Commercialization of Warfare.

Source: Department of Defense

http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/97autumn/metz.htm

The Economic Impact of a Bioterrorist Attack: Are Prevention and Postattack Intervention Programs Justifiable?

Scenarios were developed to compare the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare (Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, and Francisella tularensis) when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city.

Source: Health and Human Services (HHS); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol3no2/kaufman.htm

Applying Lessons Learned from Anthrax Case History To Other Scenarios

This article examines an anthrax release scenario in the city of Baltimore.

Source: Health and Human Services (HHS); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/bartlett.htm

Smallpox: An Attack Scenario

This scenario is intended to provoke thought and dialogue that might illuminate the uncertainties and challenges of bioterrorism and stimulate review of institutional capacities for rapid communication and coordinated action in the wake of an attack.

Source: Health and Human Services (HHS); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/otoole.htm

Aftermath of a Hypothetical Smallpox Disaster

This article presents a scenario in which a medium-sized American city is attacked with smallpox.

Source: Health and Human Services (HHS); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/bardi.htm

Strategic Planning

Joint Vision 2020: Future Warfare

Joint Vision 2020 builds upon and extends the conceptual template established by Joint Vision 2010 to guide the continuing transformation of America's Armed Forces. This site contains links to a variety of related and historical documents.

Source: Department of Defense

http://www.dtic.mil/jv2020/

Air Force 2025

2025 is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future. The report contains fictional representations of six future geopolitical scenarios: Gulliver’s Travails, Zaibatsu, Digital Cacophony, King Khan, Halves and Half Naughts, and Crossroads 2015.

Source: Department of Defense

http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/monographs/E-S/e-s.htm

Strategic Horizons: The Military Implications of Alternative Futures

A study done to analyze long-term changes in the global security environment in order to begin preparation for the post-Force XXI U.S. Army.

Source: Department of Defense

http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/ssipubs/pubs97/horizon/horizon.htm

Gateway to Future Studies

An excellent entry point into reports and activities on future studies at the Air Force War College and related institutions.

Source: Department of Defense

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-futr.htm

Center for Strategy and Technology

CST was established in 1996 at the Air Force War College and engages in long-term strategic thinking about technology and its implications for U.S. national security.

Source: Department of Defense

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awccsat.htm

United States Strategic Plan for International Affairs

Published in February 1999, this plan outlines seven national interests and 16 strategic goals that help define the U.S. position in the world. Goals are set in areas such as: exports, international crime, counterterrorism, human rights, environment, and population.

Source: State Department

http://www.state.gov/www/budget/stratplan_index.html

U.S. Government Interagency Humanitarian Demining Strategic Plan

The program aims to relieve countries who are experiencing human suffering from landmines, while promoting U.S. economic, political, and security interests.

Source: State Department

http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/pm/hdp/report/chapter3.html

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) is an independent, nonprofit public policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking about defense planning and investment strategies for the 21st century.

http://www.csbaonline.org/

RAND

From its inception in the days following World War II, RAND has help develop and apply a variety of techniques for examining the future. Work presently focuses on national defense, education and training, health care, criminal and civil justice, labor and population, science and technology, community development, international relations, and regional studies.

http://www.rand.org/

Nato Alliance: The New Strategic Concept

As a response to the Euro-Atlantic security agreement, the 19 members of the alliance are setting forth a new strategic concept to guide the alliance for years to come. The concept includes a collective defense, military capabilities, new missions, new members, strengthened partnerships, and European capabilities.

Source: State Department

http://www.nato.int/docu/home.htm

United Kingdom: The Future Strategic Context for Defense

The Strategic Defence Review (SDR), which was published in 1998, was foreign policy-led. It sought to assess Britian's essential security interests and defence needs in the light of changes in the international strategic environment. In the first stage of the Review, conducted jointly by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and the Ministry of Defence (MOD), a "Policy Framework" was produced, which sought to analyse the world as it was then and as it would develop in the future, looking forward to 2015, and to define Britain’s place within it.

Source: UK Ministry of Defense

http://www.mod.uk/index.php3?page=2449

Threats

The Worldwide Threat in 2000: Global Realities of Our National Security

A speech given by CIA Director George Tenant before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in March 2000.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States

An unclassified version of a new National Intelligence Estimate on the reemergence of the threat from infectious diseases worldwide and its implications for the United States.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/nie/report/nie99-17d.html

Transnational Threats to NATO in 2010

This paper focuses on the likely future transnational threats to NATO, including direct threats from terrorism, threats to NATO countries' information systems, the build-up and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and international drug trafficking and organized crime. Also considered are other transnational developments--such as humanitarian crises and refugee flows, illicit immigration, a host of economic challenges, and potential nuclear reactor disasters--also will challenge NATO.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/di/speeches/428149198.html

Intelligence Challenges for the Next Generation

Remarks by John C. Gannon Chairman, National Intelligence Council to the World Affairs Council Washington, D.C., in June 1998.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/archives/1998/nic_speech_060598.html

Intelligence Challenges Through 2015

Remarks by John C. Gannon, Chairman, National Intelligence Council to the Columbus Council on World Affairs in April 2000.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

Cyber Threats and the U.S. Economy

A statement before the Joint Economic Committee by John A. Serabian, Jr., Information Operations Issue Manager, Central Intelligence Agency, in February 2000.

Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

Technology

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)

Wearables in 2005
Results of a Workshop brought together industrial and military visionaries to work on the common theme of delivering computing to the individual. The workshop employed a free-thinking approach to predict what was possible in the face of further advancing technology in the areas of personal information systems. The workshop included a context-setting discussion on Society in 2005.

Source: Department of Defense

http://www.darpa.mil/mto/displays/wear2005/executive.html

General Resources

House Committee on International Relations

This site contains a variety of hearing transcripts covering areas such as human rights, international relations, and foreign policy.

Source: United States Congress

http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/house/house09.html

Army War College

http://carlisle-www.army.mil/

Naval War College

Of special interest is the War Gaming Department that uses various gaming techniques to support approximately 50 games a year. These events support internal College needs and externally-generated requests, which can come from various sources, including Defense and Navy departments, operational commands, and civilian agencies. War games are used to study a wide range of issues from space to anti-submarine warfare, from unconventional warfare to global war, from advanced technology to political-military relationships. Gaming participants can range from junior officers to four-star flag-rank officers and civilian equivalents, and include officers from most of the nations of the free world.

http://www.nwc.navy.mil/

Air Force War College

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awchome.htm#TOP

National Defense University

http://www3.ndu.edu/wgsc/wgschome.html