SCENARIOS

This section contains examples of scenarios covering a wide range of topics and geographic scales (from global to metropolitan).

Royal Dutch Shell Global Energy Scenarios

Royal Dutch Shell has been involved in scenario planning for over twenty years. Their planning group has recently developed two scenarios entitled "The New Game" and "People Power."

http://www.shell.com/royal-en/content/0,5028,25432-56934,00.html

An interesting history of the work at Royal Dutch Shell entitled "Storying Corporate Futures: The Shell Scenarios" (from the International Journal of Futures Studies) can be found at:

http://www.plausiblefutures.com/text/shell.html

World Business Council for Sustainable Development Global Scenarios: 2000-2050

An executive summary of the Global Scenarios used by the WBCD to help businesses explore the future challenges of sustainable development.

http://www.wbcsd.ch/publications/scenariosum.htm

Which World?

This interactive site, a companion piece to the book, "Which World? Scenarios for the 21^st Century," by Allen Hammond, is intended to raise questions in your mind about the future. It also contains short scenarios--structured stories–that offer conflicting perspectives on how events in a number of regions may unfold in coming decades.

http://mars3.gps.caltech.edu/whichworld/

Alternative World Scenarios for a New Order of Nations

This set of scenarios by the U.S. Army War College represents an update of an earlier report A World 2010: A New Order of Nations.

http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/ssipubs/pubs93e/altworld/altworld.htm

Air Force 2025

This report contains fictional representations of six future geopolitical scenarios: Gulliver’s Travails, Zaibatsu, Digital Cacophony, King Khan, Halves and Half Naughts, and Crossroads 2015.

http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/monographs/E-S/e-s.htm

Branching Futures and Energy Projections

What will the future for humankind bring? A Fortress World, Breakdown, Eco-communalism or possibly the Great Transition? The Global Scenario Group at the Stockholm Environment Institute has painted a set of possible images to illuminate the policy choice process.

http://www.sei.se/red/red9712d.html

Scenarios Europe 2010

In 1997, The Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission launched the Scenarios Europe 2010 project. The aim was to produce a set of coherent and thought provoking images of the future of Europe. These scenarios explore Triumphant Markets, The Hundred Flowers, Shared Responsibilities, Creative Societies, and Turbulent Neighborhoods.

http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/scenario/index_en.htm

South Africa: The Mont Fleur Scenarios

The Mont Fleur Scenarios lay out options for the development of South Africa. The process to develop the scenarios was begun in 1991 with the help of Shell Oil with the goal of stimulating the debate on how to shape the next ten years for South Africa. The scenarios were eventually published as a fourteen page insert in two major South African newspapers.

http://www.gbn.org/public/gbnstory/articles/ex_mont_fleur.htm

Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions

This report presents the results of a study conducted by five U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories that quantifies the potential for energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies to reduce carbon emissions in the United States.

http://www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy_Eff/labweb.htm/

Global Transportation Scenarios

The U.S. Department of Transportation strategic plan is built around four global transportation scenarios (Aging USA, Global Prosperity, Global Climate Change, and Western Hemisphere). The site includes the plan and descriptions of the four scenarios.

http://stratplan.dot.gov/

Perspectives on the Future of Transportation in the Age of Information

A White Paper prepared by the General Motors Research and Development Center for presentation at the "The Information Age and the California Infrastructure" Workshop, Institute for the New California, San Francisco, March 24-25, 1997.

http://www.gm.com/about/info/overview/RD_Center/websiter/intro/9703lh_Future.htm

2020 Workforce Assessment Scenarios

The Workforce Assessment Project done by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency identifies the EPA’s "Core Competencies" for today and tomorrow (2020). The final report contains an analysis of drivers of change and a number of scenarios developed by Toffler Associates that have wide applicability (this work can be found beginning on page 122 of the report).

http://www.epa.gov/epahrist/hire.htm

Hawaii: Four Futures for Hawaii

Four scenarios developed at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/future/dator/hawaii/AltFuturesHawaii.html

Pennsylvania: Alternative Futures for Monroe County

This report describes an investigation into future landscape planning alternatives for Monroe County, Pennsylvania. The report was prepared by students of the Graduate School of Design at Harvard University.

http://www.gsd.harvard.edu/depts/larchdep/research/monroe/

Applying Lessons Learned from Anthrax Case History to Other Scenarios

This article published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention examines an anthrax release scenario in the city of Baltimore.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/bartlett.htm

Smallpox: An Attack Scenario

This scenario is intended to provoke thought and dialogue that might illuminate the uncertainties and challenges of bioterrorism and stimulate review of institutional capacities for rapid communication and coordinated action in the wake of an attack.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/otoole.htm

Aftermath of a Hypothetical Smallpox Disaster

This article presents a scenario in which a medium-sized city is attacked with smallpox.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/bardi.htm