David A. Hamburg, Cochair
Cyrus R. Vance, Cochair
Gro Harlem Brundtland
Virendra Dayal
Gareth Evans
Alexander L. George
Flora MacDonald
Donald F. McHenry
Olara A. Otunnu
David Owen
Shridath Ramphal
Roald Z. Sagdeev
John D. Steinbruner
Brian Urquhart
John C. Whitehead
Sahabzada Yaqub-Khan

Special Advisors to the Commission

Arne Olav Brundtland
Herbert S. Okun

Carnegie Corporation of New York established the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict in May 1994 to address the looming threats to world peace of intergroup violence and to advance new ideas for the prevention and resolution of deadly conflict. The Commission has examined the principal causes of deadly ethnic, nationalist, and religious conflicts within and between states and the circumstances that foster or deter their outbreak. Taking a long-term, worldwide view of violent conflicts that are likely to emerge, it seeks to determine the functional requirements of an effective system for preventing mass violence and to identify the ways in which such a system could be implemented. The Commission looks at the strengths and weaknesses of various international entities in conflict prevention and considers ways in which international organizations might contribute toward developing an effective international system of nonviolent problem solving.

Additional copies of this report may be obtained from the Commission:

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Suite 715
Washington, DC 20036-2103
Tel: (202) 332-7900 Fax: (202) 332-1919
E-mail: pdc@carnegie.org

Dedication

His colleagues on the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict join in dedication of this report to Cyrus R. Vance. He has devoted his life to preventing, alleviating, and resolving deadly conflict. His integrity, ingenuity, and compassion over many decades have provided inspiration to us and to our fundamental mission.

Contents

The Microsoft Word files are compressed in ZIP format. The Word format files and the Web pages do not include all of the tables in the original document. To order the book visit Amazon.com by clicking here. You must have the acrobat reader installed to read the pdf files.
Preface	Web page Microsoft Word Format (9k) PDF file (20kb)
Executive Summary	Web page Microsoft Word Format (37k) PDF file (108kb)
Prologue: Conflict Prevention in the Twenty-First Century The Legacy of Rwanda Is Prevention Possible? Toward a New Commitment to Prevention	Web page Microsoft Word Format (11k) PDF file (168kb)
Chapter 1: Against Complacency From Cold War to Deadly Peace A World Transforming Rapid Population Growth The Expansion of Technology Modern Weaponry: Lethal and Available Conventional Weapons Chemical and Biological Weapons The Continuing Nuclear Threat The Cost of Deadly Conflict A Historic Opportunity: Toward Prevention Figure 1.1: Major Conflicts of the 1990s Figure 1.2: Population Projections Figure 1.3: Humanitarian Assistance for Complex Emergencies, 1996 Figure 1.4: Who Bears the Burden of Refugees and Asylum Seekers? Table 1.1: The Ten Leading Suppliers of Major Conventional Weapons, 1992-1996 Table 1.2: The World's Spending Priorities Table 1.3: World Bank Loans and Assistance for Reconstruction and Development Box P.1: Could the Rwandan Genocide Have Been Prevented?	Web page Microsoft Word Format (18k) PDF file (860kb)
Chapter 2: When Prevention Fails How and Why Deadly Conflict Occurs Understanding Violent Conflict Conflict between States Conflict within States Leaders and Groups Avoiding the Worst Case South Africa The Soviet Union What Can Be Done? What Are the Tasks? What Works?	Web page Microsoft Word Format (15k) PDF file (489kb)
Chapter 3: Operational Prevention Strategies in the Face of Crisis Looking at the Whole Problem A Framework for Engagement The Need for Leadership A Comprehensive Political-Military Response Resources Transition to Host Nation Control Early Warning and Early Response What Kind of Warning Is Most Useful? Who Can Best Provide Useful Early Warning? Who Should Be Warned? Preventive Diplomacy Economic Measures Sanctions Inducements Conditionality Economic Dispute Resolution Mechanisms Forceful Measures Basic Principles Peacekeeping and Maintaining Civil Order "Thin Blue Line" Preventive Deployments "Fire Brigade" Deployments Box 3.1: Indicators of States at Risk Box 3.2: The Project on Ethnic Relations Box 3.3: North Korea: The Role of Inducements Box 3.4: Conflicts at Sea Box 3.5: Preventive Deployment: A First	Web page Microsoft Word Format (35k) PDF file (915kb)
Chapter 4: Structural Prevention Strategies To Address the Root Causes of Deadly Conflict Security Nuclear Weapons Regional Contingencies Biological and Chemical Weapons Conventional Weapons Cooperating for Peace Security within States Well-Being Helping from Within: Development Revisited Making Development Sustainable Helping from Outside: Development Assistance Justice Justice in the International Community Human Rights Humanitarian Law Nonviolent Dispute Resolution Justice within States Transition to Democracy Social Justice Box 4.1: The Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons Box 4.2: Reducing the Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction Box 4.3: Decreasing the Threat of Biological and Chemical Weapons Box 4.4: International Code of Conduct on Arms Transfers Box 4.5: Proposal for Controlling Light Weapons Proliferation Box 4.6: The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) Box 4.7: The National Commission for Truth and Reconciliation in Chile Box 4.8: National Institutions for the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights Box 4.9: Concepts of Power Sharing Box 4.10: Nagorno-Karabakh: Impact of Kin Populations Abroad	Web page Microsoft Word Format (41k) PDF file (1.84mb)
Chapter 5: Preventing Deadly Conflict The Responsibility of States, Leaders, and Civil Society States and Their Leaders Pivotal Institutions of Civil Society Nongovernmental Organizations Religious Leaders and Institutions The Scientific Community Educational Institutions The Media The Business Community The People Figure 5.1: The Stake of the Business Community in Peace and Security Box 5.1: The Role of States as Mediators: Sierra Leone's Civil War Box 5.2: The Norwegian Example of Government-NGO Relations Box 5.3: South Africa’s Hidden Strength: Civil Society Box 5.4: Major International Humanitarian Agencies Box 5.5: The Catholic Church and the Philippine Revolution Box 5.6: The Role of the Protestant Churches in East Germany Box 5.7: The Principles of a Global Ethic Box 5.8: The Sullivan Principles for Businesses Operating in South Africa 126 Box 5.9: Nonviolent Resistance in Poland	Web page Microsoft Word Format (34k) PDF file (1.51mb)
Chapter 6: Preventing Deadly Conflict The Responsibility of the United Nations and Regional Arrangements The United Nations Strengths of the UN Limitations of the UN Strengthening the UN for Prevention Reform of the Security Council The UN's Role in Long-Term Prevention The International Financial Institutions Regional Arrangements Security Organizations Economic Organizations Dialogue and Cooperation Groups Table 6.1: Considering UN Security Council Membership: Data on Selected Countries Box 6.1: International Instruments for Human Rights Box 6.2: "Friends" of the Secretary-General Box 6.3: The Price of Peace: How Expensive Is the UN? Box 6.4: UN Security Council Reform: A Proposal from the General Assembly President Box 6.5: The World Bank and Postconflict Reconstruction Box 6.6: The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe: Innovation and Adaptation	Web page Microsoft Word Format (22k) PDF file (1.19mb)
Chapter 7: Toward A Culture Of Prevention The Challenge To Educate The Mass Media Religious Institutions The United Nations The Challenge To Lead Lessons of World War II The Vision of Nelson Mandela Toward Wiser Decision Making The Challenge To Communicate The Promise of Prevention	Web page Microsoft Word Format (18k) PDF file (1.21mb)
Appendices Appendix 1: Acronyms Appendix 2: Regional Arrangements Appendix 3: Countries Contributing Personnel To UN Peacekeeping Operations Appendix 4: Commission Publications Appendix 5: About The Commissioners Appendix 6: Members Of The Advisory Council	Web page Microsoft Word Format (28k) PDF file (133kb)
Notes and References	Web page Microsoft Word Format (47k) PDF file (162kb)
Selected Bibliography	Web page Microsoft Word Format (26k) PDF file (82.9kb)
Index	Web page Microsoft Word Format (19k) PDF file (46.1kb)